How is geopolitical risk reshaping travel choices in 2026?

Redion Holiday Barometer 2026 was conducted alongside a period of heightened geopolitical instability, including military escalation in the Middle East and significant disruption to major aviation hubs.

As a result, safety considerations have become more prominent. In 2026, safety is more central than ever to travel decision-making, yet the fundamental appetite for travel has remained intact.

This chapter explores how travelers are factoring risk into their decisions, and how safety considerations coexist with sustained enthusiasm and intent to travel.

Safety has become a decisive factor in destination choice

Safety is now one of the most influential criteria when choosing a destination. It ranks as the top factor in North Asia and India, and continues to gain ground in Europe, where it has reached record importance levels.

Motivations for the choice of destination (%)

Share of travelers citing each motivation when choosing their holiday destination, by region.
Motivation EU West EU South EU East EU North Asia India Oceania Middle East North America South America
I like the weather or climate in this country 39403834303627322932
I have already been there and wanted to return 37412838321630183027
It is a safe destination in terms of security 30283033373730243218
It offers activities I like, such as hiking or monuments to visit 24242326242220262922
I have friends or family to visit there 19202017181937283231
I have friends or family that recommended it 13131316202416241617
I found a good deal to go there 8121514272615151217
It is a country with good healthcare infrastructures 6797921816109
I saw a documentary, film, article or book about this country 6676132061477
A social media influencer posted a story that made me want to go 3433122651765
Other 676533111115

Key takeaway

Safety has become one of the most important criteria when choosing a destination.

Why it matters

Risk mitigation is becoming an increasingly critical factor for travelers, growing alongside traditional criteria like climate or destination familiarity, with its importance varying by region.

What it changes

- More domestic travel
- Stronger demand for flexibility

Geopolitical context is increasingly shaping where people are willing to travel

The influence of armed conflict considerations on destination choice has reached record levels in Europe in 2026. A clear majority of travelers now state that this factor plays an essential role in their decision-making, confirming a structural shift rather than a temporary reaction.

The risk related to armed conflict in the destination zone (%), an essential role

Share of travelers for whom the risk of armed conflict in the destination zone plays an essential role in choosing a destination, from 2022 to 2026.
Region 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Europe2321495759
North America2317374949
Australia1816394848

Key takeaway

The importance of armed conflict risk in travel decisions has significantly increased in Europe over the past 3 years.

Why it matters

Geopolitical risk is becoming a structural travel consideration rather than a temporary concern.

Factors that play an ‘essential’ role in choosing a destination (%)

Share of travelers for whom each factor plays an essential role when choosing a destination, by region.
Factor EU West EU South EU East EU North Asia India Oceania Middle East North America South America
The risk related to armed conflict in the destination zone 59556561645551594853
The risk of a terrorist attack 53486058686248584755
The risk of a personal attack, such as hold-up or attempted theft 45425441605641584452
The political climate in the destination country 40414531414934543837
The risk of a natural disaster, such as flood, heat wave, wildfire or storm 38334740575832513251
The risks of social unrest, such as strikes or demonstrations 37354036565238513740
Health risks 34314231595837553651
The cost of living in the destination country 30263828355027452642
The possibility that the destination will be overcrowded 30283428294220342434
Your ability to speak the destination country’s language 21192522244120362739
The ecological footprint of the trip 16151815184215371431

Key takeaway

Security-related factors now rank among the most influential destination selection criteria worldwide.

Why it matters

Travel risk assessment is increasingly integrated into vacation planning.

Geopolitical considerations have become embedded in how European travelers evaluate destinations.

Year-on-year increases are particularly pronounced in several countries. In Spain, 71% of travelers now cite armed conflict considerations as decisive (+8 points vs. 2025). Switzerland and the Czech Republic show similar upward trends, with increases of 9 and 8 points respectively.

A comparable dynamic is observed in North Asia, where the influence of armed conflict considerations continues to strengthen. At regional level, the share of travelers considering this factor essential has risen to 64%, up from 61% in 2025. South Korea illustrates this trend clearly, with the proportion increasing by 7 points year-on-year to reach 71%.

More travelers are choosing to go on holiday closer to home

In response to the current context, more travelers are opting to holiday in their own country. This trend is particularly strong in North America and Europe, while domestic travel remains comparatively lower in North Asia and the Middle East, despite year-on-year growth. Only a small minority do not plan to travel at all, confirming that the shift is one of adaptation, not withdrawal.

Destination choices are also shaped by who travelers are, not only where they live

In several regions, age plays a clear role in the growing shift toward domestic travel. Older travelers are consistently more likely than younger ones to plan holidays in their own country, reflecting a more cautious and risk-aware approach.

This generational divide is particularly visible in Europe, where over-55s are significantly more inclined than under-35s to holiday domestically (58% vs. 35%). A similar pattern emerges in North America, with 8 in 10 travelers over 55 planning a domestic trip, compared with just over half of younger travelers. Even in Oceania, age differences underline contrasting travel behaviours across generations.

Together, these trends suggest that the move toward closer-to-home travel is not purely geographical, it is also generational, with older travelers leading the shift toward perceived safety and familiarity, while younger travelers remain more internationally oriented.

Holiday plans in one’s own country this summer (%)

Share of travelers planning to holiday in their own country this summer, by country, grouped by region.
Country Share %
Europe
EU
47
France
68
United Kingdom
43
Belgium
24
Germany
31
Switzerland
18
Austria
36
Spain
69
Portugal
58
Italy
70
Poland
62
Czech Republic
48
North Asia
Malaysia
44
Hong Kong
3
Japan
77
Singapore
4
South Korea
35
India
India
51
Oceania
Australia
49
New Zealand
44
Middle East
Saudi Arabia
27
UAE
17
North America
United States
66
Canada
66
South America
Argentina
73
Brazil
79
Mexico
75

Key Insight

Travelers are choosing destinations closer to home while maintaining strong travel intentions.

What this means

Safety, familiarity and flexibility increasingly influence destination decisions.

Travelling abroad still matters - but destinations and distances are evolving

Despite the rise in domestic travel, travelling abroad continues to be the preferred option for June-to-September vacations in many regions, confirming that international mobility remains a strong aspiration where conditions allow. France, Italy and Spain are once again the top destinations for travel, attracting visitors well beyond Europe.

Top 6 foreign destinations planned this summer

Number of surveyed countries in which each destination appears among planned summer trips abroad, 2025 and 2026.
Destination 2025 2026
1Italy14 of 23 countries14 of 26 countries
2Spain11 of 23 countries12 of 26 countries
3France11 of 23 countries11 of 26 countries
4Greece10 of 23 countries10 of 26 countries
5Australia6 of 23 countries9 of 26 countries
6United States8 of 23 countries7 of 26 countries
6Japan10 of 23 countries7 of 26 countries
6United Kingdom6 of 23 countries7 of 26 countries

Ideal destination for summer vacation in 2026 (%)

Ideal summer vacation destination by region, with the combined share travelling in their own country or abroad, and the change in points versus 2025.
Region Breakdown Travel vs 2025
EU
936496
85=
West EU
1127575
84=
South EU
751357
86−1
East EU
938458
83−2
North Asia
1232515
83+2
India
653374
90+3
Oceania
637525
89−1
Middle East
839476
86+6
North America
1349326
81=
South America
862219
83new

-x/+x : Significantly evolution vs 2025

Regional patterns, however, differ markedly. South America shows the strongest preference for holidays within one’s own country, while domestic travel also remains dominant in Southern Europe, India and North America.

In the United States, although a clear majority still plan to holiday domestically, appetite for international travel is recovering: the share of travelers for whom traveling abroad is the ideal vacation has increased by four points since 2025, reaching 29%.

A similar preference for staying closer to home is observed in countries such as Spain (55%), Japan (55%), France (51%) and Italy (50%).

Where travelers do choose to go abroad, proximity increasingly matters. Across most countries, planned international trips favour nearby destinations, reflecting a desire to limit distance while preserving the benefits of travelling overseas.

This pattern is visible across regions: in New Zealand, Australia remains the top foreign destination (33%), while in Singapore, travelers most frequently plan trips to Japan (26%).

Key Insight

International travel remains attractive, but travelers increasingly prioritize nearby destinations.

What this means

- Regional tourism benefits.
- Long-haul demand becomes more selective.

While Asia is seeing reduced demand from European and North American travelers

This growing preference for nearby destinations, combined with geopolitical tensions and disruptions affecting major Gulf airport hubs, is reshaping long-haul travel. Asia has become a less prominent holiday choice in 2026, particularly among European and North American travelers.

In Europe, the share planning a trip to Asia has fallen by eight points (to 7%), while interest in Africa has also declined. In North America, every region outside the Americas has seen reduced demand since 2025, with Asia registering the sharpest drop after several years of growth.

Destinations’ zones favored by North Americans in 2026 (%)

Destination zones favoured by North American travelers from 2022 to 2026, with the change in points versus 2025.
Zone 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 vs 2025
America8484767480+6
Europe2421343325−8
Asia1112202311−12
Africa54874−3
Oceania45674−3

-x/+x : Significantly evolution vs 2025

The Middle East is showing a different pattern

The Middle East stands apart from these trends. While Asian and African destinations have also seen reduced demand here, interest in destinations in Europe and the Americas has increased. In a region directly affected by current events, the preference for reassurance plays out differently, leading travelers to look further afield rather than closer to home.

 

Destinations’ zones favored by Middle Easterns in 2026 (%)

Destination zones favoured by Middle Eastern travelers from 2024 to 2026, with the change in points versus 2025.
Zone 2024 2025 2026 vs 2025
Asia838471−13
Europe323140+9
Africa343429−5
America131121+10
Oceania357+2

-x/+x : Significantly evolution vs 2025

Key Insight

America further strengthens its lead among North American travelers. Asia remains the preferred destination for Middle Eastern travelers despite declining interest.

What it shows

Europe continues to gain appeal among Middle Eastern travelers.

Geopolitics are redrawing the map of destinations travelers could avoid

Since 2024, the Holiday Barometer has tracked which destinations travelers are prepared to set aside when the political climate becomes a decisive factor. Consistent with previous editions, avoidance is driven by perceived risk, with travelers primarily citing countries affected by active conflict, political instability or strained diplomatic relations.

In 2026, Afghanistan and Iran top the list, featuring among the five most-avoided destinations in almost every country surveyed.

The UAE, absent from last year’s rankings, now emerges as a notable addition, directly reflecting the impact of heightened tensions in the Middle East on travel trade-offs.

Patterns of avoidance are also evolving. After entering the ranking in 2025, the United States remains firmly positioned among the destinations travelers would set aside, ranking first in the UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. Israel continues to feature prominently. By contrast, Russia and Ukraine have receded sharply: whereas Ukraine appeared in the top five for nearly all countries last year, it now features in only one, Switzerland, underscoring how perceptions of risk can evolve depending on current events and perhaps media coverage.

Top 5 destinations that travelers could give up due to political or social climate

Number of surveyed countries in which each destination appears among the five travelers could give up because of the political or social climate, 2025 and 2026.
Destination 2025 2026
1Afghanistan4 of 23 countries25 of 26 countries
2Iran6 of 23 countries24 of 26 countries
3Israel18 of 23 countries23 of 26 countries
4United States17 of 23 countries21 of 26 countries
5UAE0 of 23 countries14 of 26 countries
6Russia22 of 23 countries12 of 26 countries

Key Insight

Geopolitical tensions are reshaping global tourism flows.

Why it matters

Destination attractiveness is increasingly affected by political and security perceptions.

Spotlight on South America

Included in the Holiday Barometer for the first time, South America reveals a distinctive travel profile, shaped by different seasonal patterns, travel companions and accommodation preferences.

Nearly three-quarters of South Americans (74%) travel for leisure at least once a year, a lower proportion than in North Asia (81%) and North America (82%), but still reflecting a solid and recurring travel habit. For most, travel is an annual event, with 41% travelling once a year, while a smaller but notable share (11%) travel three times or more.

Seasonality plays a defining role in how travel is organised. As in Oceania, December (30%) and January (23%) are the most popular months to travel for the people traveling at least once in the year, with July also attracting a significant share. Outside these peak periods, travel is more evenly spread across the year, a sharp contrast with Europe and North America, where holidays remain heavily concentrated between June and September. This seasonality is mirrored in trip length: December is most often when South Americans take their longest trip (28%), followed by January (21%), February and July (both 15%).

Who people travel with also sets South America apart. Travelers are most likely to plan their summer holidays with their partner (55%) and their children (42%), placing South America among the regions where family travel is most prominent, second only to the Middle East and India for trips with children. This contrasts with Europe, where travel is more strongly partner-oriented.

Accommodation choices further underline this distinct profile. Hotels remain the most common option (37%), but are less dominant than in Europe, Oceania or North Asia. House or apartment rentals (29%) and staying with friends or family (26%) play a more important role, as do all-inclusive resorts (21%), reflecting preferences for value, familiarity and shared experiences.

Taken together, South America illustrates how travel behaviours are shaped not only by global dynamics, but by regional rhythms. Distinct seasonality, family dynamics and accommodation choices coexist with the broader global trends identified in this report, reinforcing the importance of adapting travel experiences to local expectations.

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