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Navigating Uncertainty: How Geopolitical Risk Is Reshaping Travel — Without Dampening the Desire to Travel
Survey conducted by Redion, formerly Europ Assistance with the support of Ipsos
The 2026 edition of the Redion: formerly know as Europ Assistance, Holiday Barometer offers a powerful snapshot of travel at a defining moment. Conducted against a backdrop of heightened geopolitical tensions – the study was conducted from 27 February and 7 April 2026, i.e. at the same exact moment when the war in Iran started -, economic uncertainty and growing security considerations, it captures how travelers are navigating an increasingly complex world.
This year’s findings tell a nuanced and ultimately encouraging story. While safety and risk considerations are now more prominent than ever, they have not diminished the fundamental desire to travel. Instead, they are reshaping it. Travelers are becoming more thoughtful and deliberate — rebalancing their choices, travelling closer to home, planning with greater flexibility and seeking reassurance in how they prepare and experience their journeys.
Across regions, travel intent and enthusiasm remain strikingly strong, and continue to rise in some markets. What we are seeing is not withdrawal but adaptation: a shift toward a more conscious, risk-aware approach to travel that reflects the realities of today’s world.
At the same time, technology is accelerating this transformation. Artificial intelligence is increasingly woven into the travel journey, helping travelers navigate uncertainty — though adoption remains uneven. In some regions, AI is already reshaping expectations, while in others trust, human connection and personal control remain essential.
Together, these dynamics point to a new chapter for travel: one defined by resilience, adaptation and opportunity. The pages that follow explore how travelers are adjusting their priorities and behaviours — and what this evolving landscape means for the travel ecosystem in 2026 and beyond.
Based on 26,000 respondents across 26 countries, the Redion Holiday Barometer 2026 identifies the major forces shaping global travel behavior.
Travel demand remains resilient despite geopolitical uncertainty, economic pressure and global disruption.
Travelers are adapting their plans rather than giving up travel, confirming that holidays remain a core life priority.
Safety, stability and confidence are becoming key destination-selection criteria, alongside price and attractiveness.
Domestic, regional and perceived safer destinations are gaining preference across multiple markets.
Travel budgets remain relatively protected, with consumers willing to preserve holiday plans despite financial constraints.
Sustainable travel intentions remain strong, but actual behavior continues to be driven primarily by convenience, accessibility and available infrastructure.
Artificial intelligence is becoming a mainstream travel-planning tool, although adoption varies significantly by region.
The Holiday Barometer 2026 highlights the emergence of a more conscious, risk-aware and adaptable traveler. For travel providers, insurers, assistance companies and tourism stakeholders, understanding these evolving expectations will be essential to building trust, supporting travelers and shaping the future of travel.
Six findings that summarise how travelers behaved in 2026, and the figures behind them.
Travel demand holds up despite geopolitical tensions. In North Asia, India and the Middle East, intent has even increased year-on-year.
8 in 10 Europeans and North Americans feel excited or happy about travelling this year. Travel intentions rose in North Asia (66%, +3 pts) and the Middle East (82%, +6 pts).
Safety considerations are now a major driver of destinationchoice. Travelers are adapting their plans rather thancancelling trips, favoring domestic or closer-to-homedestinations.
66% of North Americans who already know where they aregoing to travel next summer will travel in their own country,+11 pts compared with 2025. It is the case for only 25% ofNorth Asians, but this is a 4 pts increase compared with 2025.
Financial considerations remain the primary barrier to travel. However, safetyand security-related considerations have doubled in several regions, marking a structural shift in travel decisionmaking.
59% of Europeans who will not travel this summer cite financial reasons. Security concerns account for 7%, but this proportion has more than doubled compared to 2025 (up 4 points).
Uncertainty is shortening planning horizons in many countries, reinforcing the value of flexible booking, cancellation and assistance solutions.
The Spanish, Emiratis, and Saudis have in common a significantly higher intention than in 2025 to book their holidays less than two months in advance: 35% of Spaniards (+7 points), 37% for Saudis and Emiratis (with increases of +6 and +9 points, respectively).
Sustainable travel intentions remain consistently high across regions, with a strong willingness to adopt more responsible travel practices. However, actual travel behaviour continues to be dominated by carbon-intensive modes of transport, particularly air travel — highlighting a persistent gap between intentions and reality, as constraints around distance, infrastructure and choice limit travelers’ ability to act on their ambitions
In terms of modes of transport to reach their holiday destination, plane remains very dominant in North Asia (71% of travelers will take the plane), Oceania (64%), India (63%).
AI is increasingly used for travel planning and booking, especially in India, North Asia and the Middle East. By contrast, Europe, North America and Oceania remain more cautious, with a strong preference for human reassurance and personal control.
69% of Indians and 57% of Middle Easterns report having already used AI to prepare their travels, which are not only significantly higher proportions than in Europe (24%) but also show a much faster growth rate (+18 points in India and +14 points in the Middle East compared to 2025, vs. +8 points in Europe).
| France | Italy 10% Spain 9% Greece 5% |
|---|---|
| Belgium | France 26% Italy 14% Spain 13% |
| UK | Spain 20% Greece 11% Italy 10% |
| Germany | Spain 14% Italy 14% Greece 9% |
| Switzerland | Italy 23% France 14% Spain 12% |
| Austria | Italy 23% Croatia 15% Greece 12% |
| Spain | Italy 12% France 8% Portugal 7% |
|---|---|
| Portugal | Spain 21% Brazil 9% Italy 8% |
| Italy | Spain 15% France 8% Greece 7% |
| Czech Republic | Croatia 12% Italy 12% Spain 10% |
|---|---|
| Poland | Spain 9% Greece 9% Italy 8% |
| USA | Italy 8% France 7% Canada 7% UK 7% |
|---|---|
| Canada | USA 12% France 5% Italy 5% |
| Argentina | Brazil 32% Chile 11% Spain 8% |
|---|---|
| Brazil | Argentina 16% Chile 8% Portugal 6% |
| Mexico | USA 13% Canada 8% Colombia 7% |
| Malaysia | Japan 22% China 19% Indonesia 17% |
|---|---|
| Singapore | Japan 26% China 23% Malaysia 18% |
| Hong Kong | Japan 38% China 29% Australia 13% |
| South Korea | Japan 31% Australia 15% China 10% |
| Japan | USA 10% South Korea 5% Australia 5% |
| India | Australia 14% Canada 8% Indonesia 8% Japan 8% |
| Saudi Arabia | Egypt 19% UAE 8% Turkey 8% |
|---|---|
| UAE | India 16% Egypt 14% Saudi Arabia 9% |
| Australia | Japan 10% USA 8% France 7% UK 7% |
|---|---|
| New Zealand | Australia 33% UK 6% Fiji 6% |
A new travel equilibrium shaped by resilience, trade-offs and adaptation
The 2026 Redion Holiday Barometer illustrates a travel landscape undergoing profound adjustment rather than retreat. In a context marked by geopolitical instability, economic pressure and growing uncertainty, travelers are recalibrating their choices, where they go, how they plan and the tools they rely on, while maintaining a strong and enduring desire to travel.
Safety and risk considerations are now firmly embedded in travel decision-making, reshaping destination choices, planning horizons and expectations around reassurance and flexibility. At the same time, affordability continues to frame travel decisions, even as budgets and spending intentions confirm that travel remains a protected priority for many. Across regions, these dynamics reveal a more deliberate, risk-aware traveler navigating trade-offs rather than stepping away from travel altogether.
Technology is emerging as a key enabler in this adaptation. Artificial intelligence is gaining momentum as a planning and decision-support tool, but along clearly divergent paths. While adoption is accelerating rapidly in regions such as India, the Middle East and North Asia, it remains more cautious elsewhere, shaped by trust, a preference for human interaction and the need for personal control. As a result, the future of travel is unlikely to follow a single global model and will instead reflect a plurality of experiences and expectations.
Together, these findings point to a new travel equilibrium, one defined by resilience, constraint and choice. Understanding how travelers balance desire, risk and innovation will be essential for the travel ecosystem in the years ahead, as partners adapt to a context where confidence, flexibility and trust have become as critical as the journey itself.
Nine short answers on what the Barometer found, from geopolitics and budgets to AI adoption.
Are people travelling less?
What is the biggest factor influencing destination choice?
Are travelers spending less on holidays?
Is domestic travel becoming more popular?
What is the main trend shaping travel in 2026?
The 2026 edition of the Holiday Barometer was conducted by Redion, formerly Europ Assistance, with the support of Ipsos in 26 countries.
In each country, 1,000 consumers aged 18 and over took part in an online questionnaire. Each sample was constructed using the quota method (gender, age, profession), with stratification by region and city size.
The survey was conducted between 27 February and 7 April 2026 and explored consumers’ holiday plans and travel preferences.
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